Faisal Shabbir
The events following the false flag Pahalgam incident mirrored past Indian tactics—using staged crises to rally domestic support and malign Pakistan internationally. However, unlike after Pulwama, the world did not endorse India’s narrative. Despite India’s media blitz, global reactions were limited to condemning the tourist killings, refusing to isolate Pakistan. This marked a shift in 21st-century warfare, where military, diplomatic, and cyber domains converged to redefine conflict.
Pakistan’s Quid Pro Quo Plus strategy not only secured domestic pride but also reinforced its reputation as a formidable regional military power. When India launched drones for surveillance, Pakistan neutralized them with electronic warfare. Subsequent Indian missile strikes on civilian areas were met with a swift, overwhelming response from the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). In a decisive hour-long dogfight—featuring 42 PAF jets against 72 Indian Air Force (IAF) aircrafts, all armed with beyond-visual-range missiles—India lost five fighters, including three advanced Rafales, despite operating under the S-400 air defence umbrella. This humiliation stunned the world and showcased the superiority of Chinese military technology over European and Russian systems.
No doubt PAF history is replete with stories of ace PAF pilots who demonstrated their mettle in all conflicts from the 1967-73 Arab Israel wars to the glorious history of downing 5 aircraft by M M Alam in the Indo-Pak 1965 war to the recent Operation Swift Retort in 2019. Such feats were achieved primarily due to superb training standards maintained throughout the history of PAF. The one-hour air battle has been added as another glorious chapter to the PAF history, which will be studied, analyzed and taken as a benchmark for the world’s air forces to emulate. Pakistan Army on its part played along hand in hand to give a befitting response to the Indians at LoC and through effective missile attacks on India’s military targets like air bases and military infrastructure along the international border that ultimately broke the will of the Indian leadership and public.
The tracking of Indian Navy Long Range Maritime Aircraft Poseidon P-8I on the night of 4/5 May and earlier in the recent past, multiple Indian Navy submarines localization in the Arabian Sea are a clear manifestation of Pakistan Navy’s resolve to remain vigilant at all times. Although the size of Pakistan Navy (PN) is much smaller when number of platforms are compared but like PAF and Pakistan Army the weapons, equipment and above all the level of training of both officers and sailors of Pakistan Navy far exceeds the Indian Navy. According to India Today, since 1990, on an average, Indian Navy has lost one warship every five years during peacetime. Collisions, groundings and major fires due to negligence are very common in the Indian Navy. No other Navy of this size carries such a dubious record. Much before breaking out of the hostilities post Pahalgam incident, PN fleet was tasked to proceed to allocated areas to take on any threat whenever the situation demanded. From the onset, Pakistan Navy kept an all-out offensive posture in the Arabian Sea, initially through missile firing to show the resolve and capability of the Navy. Later, Pakistan Navy deterred the Indian Navy from even closing in through extensive patrols by LRMP aircraft and wartime deployment of submarines. The overt posturing of Pakistan Navy’s Surface Fleet comprising Destroyers, Frigates, Corvettes and Missile Boats armed with long range Surface to Air, Surface to Surface missiles and torpedoes with state of the art full spectrum Electronic Warfare capabilities kept Sea Lines of Communication open throughout the confrontation. Indian Navy assuming itself as a ‘Net Security Provider’ in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) had initially brought in an aircraft carrier to demonstrate itself as a force to reckon with but couldn’t dare to close Pakistan lesser than 400 nautical miles (730 kms) as predictable sinking of aircraft carrier by Pakistan Navy’s submarine or PAF aircraft would have broken India’s will to fight and morale of Indian armed forces as well as public would have gone abysmally low. Probably, already a low morale prevailing in the Indian Navy kept it at arm’s length, with not even a single provocative statement uttered by anyone in whites.
This short but devastating conflict exposed deep fractures in India’s military-political structure. Excessive government interference in promotions, postings, corrupt defence procurements, and authoritarian bureaucrats with no military expertise have crippled India’s Armed Forces. The abrupt removal of senior Indian Army and IAF officers after Pahalgam incident highlighted this dysfunction.
The conflict has shattered the Indian dream to dominate the Indo-Pacific region. Meanwhile, Modi’s Hindutva agenda, marginalizing Muslims, Christians, and Sikhs, fuels separatist movements. India’s boast of a $4 trillion economy contrasts starkly with its poverty—one in four households lacks toilets, and 17 million urban Indians live in slums.
India’s media, a 5G propaganda tool, fed the public lies of victory, making the eventual humiliation harder to digest. International outlets now expose these false narratives. After military failure, India suffered diplomatic disgrace, pleading with the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to broker a ceasefire.
At the same time, Indians are shrewd and effective when it comes to diplomacy and lawfare. The recent ceasefire will lead to a negotiated settlement of disputes through a third party in the coming days or weeks. Pakistan has undoubtedly done outstandingly well on all fronts, be it diplomatic or military, since the Pahalgam incident. However, the real test is to exploit the situation from a position of strength to achieve Pakistan’s ultimate goals, foremost being full reinstatement of Indus Water Treaty, second to hold plebiscite under the UN in Kashmir as per UNSC Resolution 47, based on issue taken to UN by India back in 1948 and thirdly restoration of Indian Constitution Article 370 and its sub clause Article 35A.
Faisal Shabbir is Director Research, Maritime Centre of Excellence, Lahore. He can be reached at faisal.shabbir@gmail.com
